Is the Latest News About ULTra Heathrow Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) Launch Serious?

There was a mention on the internet of a new launch date for the glorified golf carts of Heathrow:

BAA is also due next month to launch a system of robotic cars, or a Personal Rapid Transit system, to ferry passengers between the T5 Business passengers’ car park and the terminal without having to wait for a shuttle bus.

The ULTra site:

It is anticipated that the system will go fully live this summer, with the 21 pod vehicles operating 22 hours a day.

"It is anticipated"? Why aren't they more certain? A little history may help explain why they only anticipate going public...

Before Heathrow, the ULTra folks said they were ready to go six years ago - "The system was to have started carrying passengers at Cardiff Bay in 2005".

July 23, 2004: "the system could be in place at Heathrow by 2006"

21 October 2008: "... we are very much looking forward to launching this to passengers in 2009."

2010 (broken link, screenshot HERE): "Testing of the PRT System is continuing and, with all installation and communications challenges now resolved, we anticipate commencing passenger services in late Spring 2010.""

September 14, 2010: "We may find that we are allowed to gradually move to full operation unannounced later this summer."

This lack of certainty has not helped the credibility of the as-yet unproved pod "system" as PRT promoter Steve Raney explains in this video:



Meanwhile, here in Minnesota, there's an effort to get legislative support for the proposed PRT project in Coon Rapids. The session is scheduled to end in May... just before the new launch date. Hmmmmmmmm.....

Recent news about the ongoing, worldwide pod boondoggle:

Another Crackpot Personal Rapid Transit Proposal Bites the Dust (Almelo)

Strange Minnesota industry - 3 Proposed PRT Projects, 6 PRT Companies and 2 PRT Lobbyists.

Former Rep. Mark Olson Returns to Capitol as a lobbyist for would-be PRT vendor proposing $100 million pod project in Coon Rapids.

The CPRT table at U of M Jobs Fair. Convicted felon is spokesman for the CPRT.

Daventry citizens say "Pods Off" to PRT TWICE!

Duluth News Tribune article about Taxi 2000 trying to restart Duluth pod project - hilarious comments.

The Pawlenty administration wasted thousands of taxpayers' dollars promoting personal rapid transit .

PRT is so not happening at Heathrow.

Pod people invade Newport News ( the article quotes retired professor Vukan Vuchic)

Bizarre hearing for wacky Jpods proposal for Hull, Massachusetts. Video: Bill James Pitches Jpods Resolution to Hennepin County.

Taxi 2000 Corporation spent nearly $80K on lobbying in Minnesota in 5 years. Taxi 2000 lobbyist and Bachmann pal Ed Cain also lobbied for the phony U.S. Navy Veterans Association charity.

Federal Funding Nixed for Winona Personal Rapid Transit Project

The Swedish/Korean PRT prototype malfunctioned in front of the media.

The Masdar PRT (actually computer-guided golf carts that follow magnets imbedded in the roadway) has been scaled way back, This setback got a mention in the NY Times and confirmed in this Bloomberg article. New post-mortem: "Masdar City Abandons Transportation System of the Future".

The so-called Morgantown PRT (not a true PRT system) was the subject of a student newspaper editorial after a malfunction created a "fireball" and filled a vehicle with smoke. The cost of fixing the Morgantown boondoggle is $93 million. Twitter Reveals Morgantown WVU Personal Rapid Transit's Frequent Breakdowns.

Winona Tea Party Candidate Reaffirms Opposition to Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

Co-founder of the Winona Tea Party Patriots Joshua Chasco is running for an at-large seat on the Winona City Council, The Winona Daily News has Chasco's position on PRT:

Chasco is also against the city's pursuit of Personal Rapid Transit, which uses small, pod-like vehicles on guideways to shuttle passengers to their destinations. He said the project will come with few guarantees, a likelihood of high costs to the city and the possibility that property owners' rights could be impacted, he said.

Chasco is on the ballot in the August 10th primary. The two top vote-getters will be on the ballot in November.

Mayor Jerry Miller, a Republican is a PRT promoter. The City of Winona will likely be participating in the August 18th MnDOT PRT workshop.

Once again, here's a list of recent pod flops and fiascos:

Taxi 2000 lobbyist and Bachmann pal Ed Cain also lobbied for the phony U.S. Navy Veterans Association charity.

"Columbia [Maryland] failed to win a federal grant for a futuristic PRT that would have allowed riders to board driverless cars, key in their destination and proceed nonstop along elevated guideways." - Columbia Flyer [ explorehoward.com ]

ULTra PRT Heathrow Debut Postponed a Fourth Time.

No $25 million earmark for PRT pork project in Winona, Minnesota.

The Swedish/Korean PRT prototype malfunctioned recently in front of the media.

The Masdar PRT (actually computer-guided golf carts that follow magnets imbedded in the roadway) has been scaled way back, This setback got a mention in the NY Times and confirmed in this Bloomberg article.

The much-hyped PRT project in Daventry ended in fiasco.

The so-called Morgantown PRT (it's a mundane people-mover) was the subject of a student newspaper editorial after a malfunction created a "fireball" and filled a vehicle with smoke. The cost of fixing the Morgantown boondoggle is $93 million.

Revealed - ULTra PRT's Dorky Golf Cart Wheels

The 30+ year story of PRT is a lot like the plot of the Mel Brooks movie "The Producers". In order for PRT do its job as a stalking horse for bashing rail transit, it cannot ever be built. The moment PRT attempts to leave the shiny, futuristic computer animations and attempts to become a real, live transportation system, its flaws become obvious... and with its little wheels that look like they came off of a golf cart, PRT looks downright dorky.



The dorky wheels that must be never be revealed:

We were just outside Boston, Massachusetts at the Raytheon world headquarters. Raytheon, a big producer of hi tech military weapons and air traffic control systems, was working on the PRT (Personal Rapid Transit) project. Several energetic images were needed to promote the new system worldwide, with instructions that we were not to reveal the rubber tires under the vehicle in any of the final photos.

In a recent BBC puff-piece about ULTra, we get a glimpse of the undercarriage of the glorified golf cart... and its dorky wheels:

ULTra PRT Heathrow Debut Delayed a Third Time?

UPDATE: ULTra PRT Heathrow Debut Postponed a Fourth Time.

U of M CTS Report:

Steve Raney, a principal with ATS ULTra, gave an overview of current PRT technology and discussed ULTra’s recently completed PRT project for London’s Heathrow airport.

The ULTra circulator runs on an elevated guideway to connect Heathrow’s new Terminal 5 to a remote parking lot. Its on-demand nature was particularly useful for this destination. “PRT was the only practical solution for (the British Airport Authority),” Raney said. “It had a 60 percent travel time savings and 40 percent operating costs savings” over other modes. Construction on the project is currently complete, with revenue service scheduled to begin this spring.

According to a presentation by Martin Lowson (available at the ATRA website) the new launch window is in "Mid 2010":



That would make it three times the debut of the glorified golf carts have been postponed. How many chances do these PRT guys get?

Public Transit had this comment after the second postponement:

It seems that the opening of the Ultra PRT system constructed at Heathrow Airport outside London, England, has been delayed again, by issues that remain unidentified.

During some intense debate earlier this year involving this website and the engineering team behind the Ultra PRT at Heathrow, it was stated that the system would open for revenue service in the "4th quarter" of 2009, e.g., sometime between October 1, 2009 and December 31, 2009.

In recent British press reports (for example, http://www.ultraprt.com/cms/index.php?page=the-london-science-museum-aug-09 ), the system now reportedly will open "sometime next year." To wit:

The bubble-shaped, driverless cars with black, bug-eyed windows are his solution to the problems of urban travel. He began working on the system in 1995 and NEXT YEAR [2010] they are due to start operating at Heathrow, carrying passengers from car parks to Terminal 5 [emphasis added].

So what gives? Did the concerns raised here a few months ago sink in, and perhaps produce more "due diligence." Of course, I'm not going to hold my breath for any explanation from Mr. Lowenson et al regarding up to another year of delay.

Also, displaying the Ultra PRT vehicles alongside Stephenson's Rocket is highly presumptuous until PRT is actually proven for several years in revenue service, which it still has to show.

Steve Raney had this to say after the first postponement,

"I've certainly been in situations where the people I'm communicating with really hate PRT."

Listen:

ULTra PRT's Headway Hokum

The ULtra website makes this claim:

"ULTra has a passenger-carrying capacity as great as LRT at 4800 seats per hour one-way at a 3 second headway.”

From a presentation at a January 12, 2008 ATRA conference:

Note: Slide #10 of the presentation mentions a shuttle application with a "5 second minimum headway". This only refers to the headway along the guideway. The small end-of-line stations shown in the shuttle graphic on slide #11 could not operate with headways below about 15 seconds. This is because all vehicles have to reverse direction at a single point within the station, and furthermore the limited number of berths would not give time to deboard and board passengers A larger station with more berths and multiple turn-around locations would be needed to process a vehicle every five seconds.

Will San José Pimp Their Own Pods?

ABC KGO has a report on pod plans for PRT in San José :



(If player doesn't work, go to the abc7news.com website)

ULTra is featured zooming around in computer-generated videos... no mention that the launch of ULTra at Heathrow 5 has been postponed twice.

Laura Stuchinsky, Sustainability Officer, San José Department of Transportation appears and gives a rave review for PRT (also on the ATS ULTra PRT vendor website here).

Bill James is also in the video, the JPODs guy:



Bill James also tried to sell Jpods in Minnesota... here's a video featuring Bill James... watch for Minneapolis City Council President Barbara Johnson sitting in the Jpod with the "Support the Troops" ribbon:



Here's Barbara Johnson's pod-praising letter to Bill James from the Jpod website (click to make larger):

Columnist: Naperville, Illinois Needs a PRT Boondoggle

Last week, Bill Mego of the Naperville Sun wrote a column titled; "Public transportation is going away in U.S.".

It will have to be safe and private. Naperville people don't want to travel in groups or mingle with the lower classes or the homeless.

So, to be successful, public transportation will have to be less than a fifth as expensive as light rail, not need a right of way, and run on a very small amount of electricity. Its cars will have to be safe and private, have essentially no moving parts that require maintenance, and not need a driver. So is there such a system? Yes, fortunately there is, but the "experts" aren't considering it.

I'll explain next week what it is.

Right.. the old, you don't want to ride with scary (fill in the blank) people, anti-transit canard.

This week Bill Mego lets us know what the "system" that excludes lower classes and homeless people is... and you guessed it:

The real genius of this system, called Personal Rapid Transit, is the computer system that controls the space between cars, called headway, their speed, their route though branches in the guideway system, and the distribution of unoccupied cars throughout the system. There are no schedules. A car is usually waiting at a station whenever you wish to ride. You pay by the ride, or by the day, with a credit card, an RFID device like an I-Pass transponder, or some kind of ticket.

A main spine from far south to far north Naperville might cost less than a high school. Because the guideways are easily installed and moved, loops and branches can easily be added as the system develops.

Because of low labor, fuel, insurance and maintenance costs, PRT can be financially self-supporting through tickets and dynamic, location-related advertising telling, for example, what is available at the stores and restaurants you are approaching. The more it is used, the less each ride costs.

The first step for us might be to plan a PRT line from a remote parking lot to the downtown Metra station, perhaps powered by our Green Fuels Depot. Given the negative and contentious political climate today, I think it would be foolish to proceed further without a super-majority referendum. I believe PRT is, however, the only form of public transportation we could ever implement. Fortunately, it's also the best.

Just what Illinois needs, another PRT boondoggle like the Raytheon,/Rosemount PRT project:

Fast-forward to the middle to late 1990s. J. Edward Anderson, the USA's leading PRT guru, managed to convince Raytheon, a major military hardware contractor, to buy into his PRT technology (a scheme developed in 1981), which he licensed to Raytheon in 1993. Raytheon then poured R&D money into the concept, bringing forth PRT 2000, a proprietary Personal Rapid Transit product. One way or another, PRT promoters had managed to attract the interest of the Northeastern illinois Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) in the concept, and a study concluded in 1992 that a suburban PRT system appeared feasible.

Lured by Raytheon's promise of a 1.3% commission on any additional sales of the PRT 2000 technology, RTA bought heavily into the venture, investing tens of millions of dollars in a proposed PRT system in the Chicago suburb of Rosemont, illinois, where a conference center and hotel complex near the Chicago O'Hare airport were planned. A 3.5-mile (5.6-km) triple-looping layout with about 8 stations and 40 cars, operating 20 hours a day, was intended to feed passengers to the RTA's Blue Line rail transit station (actually, not a bad test application for PRT). The system was projected to attract about 2 million rider-trips a year, at a cost of $1.00 a trip.

--snip--

An article in Mechanical Engineering Design (2004) relates that "after eight years and $40 million, the system proved to be unworkable." (Actually, according to another report in the Advanced Transit Association Newsletter (Spring 2000), total public and private investment in the project came to $67 million, virtually all of it wasted.)

In any case, work on PRT 2000 was discontinued by Raytheon and the RTA in 1999 ("Raytheon's PRT 2000", innovative Transportation Technologies website, 18 August 2002). An interview with Raytheon's project manager (ITS international, November/December 1999) notes that the company gave up after realizing that they could not build the system for less than $50 million per mile – and that for single-direction guideway loops.

Some people never learn...